Matcha shortage 2026: why your cup is getting more expensive and how to spot fakes

Reading time: 8 minutes · Last updated: July 2026

Since late 2024, the world has been facing a shortage of tencha, the shade-grown leaf from which ceremonial matcha is made. Demand has grown faster than Japan can keep up, with auction prices breaking records and an increasing amount of low-grade matcha being incorrectly sold as "ceremonial." The short answer: expect higher prices, pay extra attention to the harvest time and origin, and be suspicious of remarkably low prices.

Want to be sure of authentic quality? Our 30-gram ceremonial matcha comes from a consistent first-harvest farm in Kagoshima, traceable to the source.

What exactly is happening with the global matcha supply?

The global demand for matcha has grown about eightfold over the past five years, while a new tea bush takes about five years to become fully productive. As a result, supply and demand are drifting further and further apart.

The figures are striking. In the United Kingdom alone, matcha sales rose by 202 percent in 2023 (LBC, 2025), and that trend has continued globally. At the same time, the supply of skilled tea farmers has shrunk: between 2000 and 2020, Japan lost approximately 53,000 tea farmers to retirement, with too few new growers to compensate (Global Matcha Market Report, 2026). New plantings do not provide a quick fix: it takes about five years for a tea bush to reach full production.

How sharply have auction prices risen?

Tencha auction prices in Japan reached record highs in 2026. Kyoto opened around 8,235 yen per kilo and rose to nearly 14,000 yen, while Kagoshima tencha even peaked around 19,000 yen per kilo.

At the 2026 opening auction, Kyoto tencha opened around 8,235 yen per kilo (over €44) and climbed to approximately 13,972 yen (about €75), with a national average of around 14,541 yen (about €78) according to Japanese auction data. Kagoshima tencha, the basis for our own matcha, even peaked around 19,000 yen per kilo, equivalent to more than €100 (One With Tea, 2026). These are wholesale prices for the raw, unground leaf, not the final price of matcha powder in stores, but the increase does translate into retail pricing. Globally, retail prices are estimated to have risen by 15 to 20 percent between late 2025 and early 2026. Read more about why quality matcha is expensive in the first place in why is matcha expensive.

The risk: more and more "ceremonial" matcha is not what it seems

Due to the shortage, some sellers are resorting to lower-quality matcha and labeling it as ceremonial anyway. In Tokyo, specialized tea shops even implemented purchase limits of one tin per customer in early 2026.

A shortage of raw material almost always leads to dilution further down the supply chain. Reports from Japan describe how tea shops in Tokyo were forced to set a limit of one tin of matcha per customer, with tencha shortages as the direct cause (Maison Koko, 2026). This same scarcity makes it more attractive to sell later, coarser harvests or blended batches as "ceremonial." Read the difference between these two categories, and why it matters more than ever now, in ceremonial versus culinary matcha.

How do you recognize real ceremonial matcha, even now that demand is sky-high?

Pay attention to four signs: a bright, vibrant green color, a fine silky texture, an explicitly stated harvest time, and traceability to a specific farm. A remarkably low price is now a warning signal, not a bargain.

• Color: vibrant, bright green without a yellow or dull undertone.

• Texture: fine, silky stone-ground powder, no coarse or gritty grains.

• Harvest time: reliable suppliers explicitly state that it is a first harvest (ichibancha).

• Origin: single-origin and traceable to a specific farm, not an anonymous mix of batches.

• Price: in a market with rising wholesale prices, an unusually low price is more of a warning than a bargain.

Read more about these signs, specifically regarding our own origin, in buying Kagoshima matcha and recognizing matcha quality. Want to read more about the broader background of this scarcity? Check out matcha shortage 2026.

What does this mean for your next cup?

A consistent, direct relationship with a single farm does not protect against global price pressure, but it does protect against the dilution occurring elsewhere in the market.

A fair note: Unmatched Matcha is also not immune to the global price pressure on tencha. However, a consistent, direct relationship with a single farm in Kagoshima does offer traceability: you know exactly where your matcha comes from and from which harvest, rather than an anonymous mix that is becoming increasingly common following this shortage. Read more about why that relationship with a consistent farm matters in first-harvest matcha and buying single-origin matcha.

This article is informative and based on public market figures. Prices and availability may change at any time.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is there a global matcha shortage in 2026?

The demand for matcha has grown significantly faster over the past five years than the supply of tencha, the shade-grown leaf from which matcha is made. A new tea bush takes about five years to reach full production, while Japan has also lost thousands of experienced tea farmers to retirement.

How do you recognize fake ceremonial matcha?

Look for a bright green color, a fine silky texture, an explicitly stated first-harvest time, and traceability to a specific farm. In the current market, an unusually low price is more suspicious than advantageous.

Will matcha prices increase further this year?

According to Japanese auction data and industry reports, pressure on tencha prices will continue at least through the 2026 harvest, with a projected further impact on retail prices.

Is cheap ceremonial matcha now extra suspicious?

Yes. Now that wholesale prices for tencha are breaking records, a remarkably low price for "ceremonial" matcha is a signal to be extra critical of the harvest time, origin, and texture.

Does the global shortage affect Unmatched Matcha?

The global price pressure affects the entire market, including our procurement. Our consistent relationship with a single farm in Kagoshima doesn't change that, but it does ensure traceability and prioritizes quality over volume.

The global matcha shortage is not a marketing story but a measurable reality: record prices at the Japanese auction, a shrinking supply of experienced tea farmers, and increasing pressure to sell lower quality as ceremonial. The scarcer the supply, the more important harvest time, texture, and traceable origin become. Want to be sure of the real deal? Start with the 30-gram ceremonial matcha from our consistent Kagoshima source.